IDC: Worldwide smartphone market forecast to grow nearly 6% in 2024

Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 5.8% year over year in 2024 to 1.23 billion units, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. The 12% growth in the first quarter, followed by 9% growth last quarter, has brought improved optimism about how 2024 will play out in the second half of the year. Affordable Android smartphones continue to grow rapidly in emerging markets coming off a difficult two years while premium markets are starting to embrace GenAI smartphones, generating excitement and renewed interest in the industry.

“The improved forecast for 2024 cements the road to recovery for the smartphone market, driven by stronger growth for Android devices in China and emerging markets,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “The resulting growth for Android this year will be nine times faster at 7.1% than iOS at 0.8%. Apple’s softer growth is a result of increasing competition in China but also a higher comparison base year. However, there is a potential upside to the iOS forecast with a lot depending on how well the demonstrated GenAI use cases play out in the upcoming iPhone 16 launch and how soon Apple can establish local AI partnerships in China. IDC expects the iOS trajectory to improve in 2025 with 4% year-over-year growth thanks to Apple Intelligence, which is already creating a lot of excitement and is expected to gain momentum next year and encourage faster upgrades.”

“Although GenAI smartphones are relatively new in the market, premium flagships will continue to adopt GenAI features to help separate them from the pack,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “IDC expects a robust 344% growth for GenAI smartphones capturing 18% share of the total market by end of 2024, as most flagships will adopt some on-device GenAI features. However, GenAI-capable devices won’t come cheap initially, as the average selling price for these GenAI smartphones will be more than double the cost of non-GenAI capable devices, further driving the premiumization trend.”